Palgunadi's Personal Website

Research Interests

My research interests include earthquake rupture dynamics, induced seismicity, deep learning in seismology, and earthquake source mechanics. I focus on developing numerical methods, physical models, and finding observational evidence to better understand earthquake processes as part of the Earthquake Mechanics Research Group.

Current Project

I am currently working on generative waveform modeling and earthquake dynamics modeling at ETH Zurich. I am focusing on generating seismogram using generative AI for better predict the stochastic waveform model. For the dynamic rupture model, I am investigating deca-scale earthquake rupture as part of Fault Earthquake Activation in Bedretto lab.

Publications

The publication lists below are only for the last two years. The rest of the lists can be found in this link.

2025

Rupture dynamics and velocity structure effects on ground motion during the 2023 Türkiye earthquake doublet

Li, B., Palgunadi, K.H., Wu, B., Suhendi, C., Zhou, Y., Ghosh, A. and Mai, P.M.

Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1), p.228.

PDF Code Software DOI

Geometrically Complex, Relatively Weak, and Subcritically Stressed Lembang Fault May Lead to a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake.

Palgunadi, K.H., Simanjuntak, A.V.H., Ry, R.V., Daryono, M.R., Widiyantoro, S., Warnana, D.D., Triahandini, A., Syaifuddin, F., Ahmadiyah, A.S., Sirait, A.M.M. and Suryanto, W.

Journal of Engineering and Technological Sciences, 57(1), pp.129-144.

PDF Software DOI
2024

Ground Motion Characteristics of Cascading Earthquakes in a Multiscale Fracture Network

Palgunadi, K.H., Gabriel, A.A., Garagash, D.I., Ulrich, T., Schliwa, N. and Mai, P.M.

arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.15416.

PDF Code Software DOI

High Resolution Seismic Waveform Generation using Denoising Diffusion

Bergmeister, A., Palgunadi, K.H., Bosisio, A., Ermert, L., Koroni, M., Perraudin, N., Dirmeier, S. and Meier, M.A.

arXiv preprint arXiv:2410.19343.

PDF Code DOI

The western extension of the Balantak Fault revealed by the 2021 earthquake cascade in the central arm of Sulawesi, Indonesia

Simanjuntak, A.V., Palgunadi, K.H., Supendi, P., Muksin, U., Gunawan, E., Widiyantoro, S., Rawlinson, N., Daryono, M.R., Daryono, D., Karnawati, D. and Hanifa, N.R.

Geoscience Letters, 11(1), p.35.

PDF DOI

Fault size–dependent fracture energy explains multiscale seismicity and cascading earthquakes

Gabriel, A.A., Garagash, D.I., Palgunadi, K. H. and Mai, P.M.

Science, 385(6707), p.eadj9587.

PDF Code Software DOI

Seismic source analysis of the destructive earthquake November 21, 2022, Mw 5.6 Cianjur (Indonesia) from relocated aftershock

Zulfakriza, Z., Nugraha, A.D., Heryandoko, N., Ry, R.V., Muttaqy, F., Andika, A., Azhari, M.F., Putra, A.S., Palgunadi, K. H., Cummins, P.R. and Supendi, P.

Scientific Reports, 14(1), p.12142.

PDF DOI

Rupture dynamics of cascading earthquakes in a multiscale fracture network

Palgunadi, K. H., Gabriel, A. A., Garagash, D. I., Ulrich, T., & Mai, P. M.

Show graphical abstract
Graphical abstract showing multiscale fracture network and cascading earthquakes

Fault-damage zones comprise multiscale fracture networks that may slip dynamically and interact with the main fault during earthquake rupture. Using 3D dynamic rupture simulations and scale-dependent fracture energy, we examine dynamic interactions of more than 800 intersecting multiscale fractures surrounding a listric fault, emulating a major listric fault and its damage zone. We investigate 10 distinct orientations of maximum horizontal stress, probing the conditions necessary for sustained slip within the fracture network or activating the main fault. Additionally, we assess the feasibility of nucleating dynamic rupture earthquake cascades from a distant fracture and investigate the sensitivity of fracture network cascading rupture to the effective normal stress level. We model either pure cascades or main fault rupture with limited off-fault slip. We find that cascading ruptures within the fracture network are dynamically feasible under certain conditions, including: (a) the fracture energy scales with fracture and fault size, (b) favorable relative pre-stress of fractures within the ambient stress field, and (c) close proximity of fractures. We find that cascading rupture within the fracture network discourages rupture on the main fault. Our simulations suggest that fractures with favorable relative pre-stress, embedded within a fault damage zone, may lead to cascading earthquake rupture that shadows main fault slip. We find that such off-fault events may reach moment magnitudes up to Mw ≈ 5.5, comparable to magnitudes that can be otherwise hosted by the main fault. Our findings offer insights into physical processes governing cascading earthquake dynamic rupture within multiscale fracture networks.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 129(3), e2023JB027578

PDF Code Software DOI

Research Projects

High-Resolution Spatial Stress Ratio and Principal Stress Orientation in Java Region

We aim to determine stress ratios and the orientation of principal stress across the Java region. We will use open-source data from several national and international agencies that provide earthquake source mechanisms, as well as several published studies. We plan to re-evaluate several poorly constrained analyses of the earthquake source mechanisms using stochastic Bayesian moment tensor inversion. We will also use the well-established open-source software, Stress Inverse, to obtain the stress ratio and orientation of principal stress. Due to the large dataset and the region of Java, we will distribute our efforts evenly among all collaborators. The final outputs of the research will be an online platform featuring an interactive map of stress ratios and principal stress orientations. The map will be implemented on a webpage that can be accessed by the general public. Moreover, the map will contain a database that can be submitted to by any approved users.

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